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Auto production and sales, which have been soaring all the way, slammed on the "brakes" in June ". On July 9, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") released the latest production and sales data. In June, domestic automobile production and sales reached 1.943 million and 2.015 million respectively, down 4.8 per cent and 5.3 per cent from the previous month and 16.5 per cent and 12.4 per cent from the same period last year. In fact, in May of this year, domestic automobile production and sales have already seen a slight decline from the previous month and year-on-year, while production and sales in June fell further.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that the decline in automobile production and sales in May and June was related to multiple factors. Among them, passenger cars are mainly affected by factors such as insufficient chip supply and rising raw material prices, while commercial vehicles are related to the switching of emission standards.
A manager of a listed car company told the Securities Times that the impact of the chip shortage on car production and sales is still continuing, and since May, the chairman of the company has personally led a team to communicate with the chip company to ensure a smooth supply of car chips.
Decline to expand: chip shortage is the main reason
In 2020, affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, domestic auto production and sales showed a trend of low and high, with production and sales reversing from June last year. Benefiting from the low base of automobile production and sales last year and the full recovery of automobile consumption, domestic automobile production and sales have continued to rise since the beginning of this year.
However, since April, the impact of high growth from the previous low base has been significantly reduced. In May, domestic automobile production and sales fell slightly month-on-month and year-on-year, while domestic automobile production and sales fell significantly in June.
According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association, in June, car production and sales reached 1.943 million and 2.015 million respectively, down 4.8 per cent and 5.3 per cent month-on-month and 16.5 per cent and 12.4 per cent year-on-year.
In terms of sub-models, passenger car production and sales were 1.555 million and 1.569 million, down 3.8 per cent and 4.7 per cent month-on-month, down 13.7 per cent and 11.1 per cent year-on-year, while commercial vehicle production and sales were 388000 and 446000, down 8.3 per cent and 7.4 per cent month-on-month, down 26.3 per cent and 16.8 per cent year-on-year.
"Obviously, the year-on-year decline in the production and sales of commercial vehicles is higher than that of passenger vehicles," Chen Shihua said. The decline in the production and sales of commercial vehicles is mainly due to the switching of the five and six national policies, which has led to short-term suppression of the market demand for commercial vehicles.
In fact, the recent production and sales reports disclosed by listed automobile companies also reflect the reality that automobile sales "stepped on the brakes" in June.
On July 9, SAIC (600104) disclosed its June production and sales data. In June, the company sold 328600 cars, down 31.46 per cent from a year earlier. SAIC-Volkswagen sold 65000 cars, down 54.63 percent year-on-year, while SAIC-GM sold 85100 cars, down 34.97 percent year-on-year.
The June production and sales bulletin disclosed by Foton Motor (600166) also showed that the company's auto products achieved output of 57700 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 11.72; sales of 64300 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 2.65.
Industry insiders believe that the decline in commercial vehicle sales is caused by policy factors, and its impact is short-term and controllable. However, the decline in passenger car sales is caused by the shortage of automotive chips. This problem is difficult to obtain in the short term. Quick solution.
"The impact of the chip shortage on the industry has been fermenting for some time, but through layers of transmission, this pressure broke out in June."
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Association"), told the Securities Times reporter that recently, the shortage of automotive chips has affected the production rhythm of the entire industry. However, the measures taken by different manufacturers are different. Among them, the order demand matching of some joint venture brands is unbalanced with the existing inventory, resulting in weak terminal sales; while independent brands stabilize production and sales in a more flexible way, strengthen the advantages in the supply chain, and alleviate the pressure caused by chip shortage to a certain extent.
A manager of a listed car company told the Securities Times that since May, the chairman of the company has personally led a team to visit the chip company to ensure a smooth supply of automotive chips.
"It is no exaggeration to say that many independent car companies are lined up to grab the supply of goods at the gate of the chip company." The above-mentioned people said that the current chip shortage has made auto companies pay more and more attention to their layout. Most companies are either actively stabilizing the supply chain or have jointly developed with chip companies to ensure that the chip production cycle matches the automotive products.
New energy vehicles maintain high growth
Although the shortage of automotive chips has affected the production and sales of the entire industry, new energy vehicles have maintained a high growth trend as always.
According to data released by the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country reached 248000 and 256000 respectively in June, of which sales hit a record high. Production and sales increased by 14.3 and 17.7 month-on-month, and 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year.
Recently, a number of new energy vehicle companies also released June sales data, of which BYD sold 41400 new energy vehicles in June, up 191.55 percent from 14200 in the same period last year, while Euler, the new energy brand of Great Wall Motor, sold 10800 vehicles in June, up 309.5 percent from a year earlier. In addition, SAIC GM Wuling, Tesla China, GAC An and other car companies also successfully sold more than 10,000 new energy vehicles in June, reaching 31300, 28100 and 10400 respectively.
For new car makers, in June, Weilai delivered 8083 cars, up 116.1 percent year-on-year; Xiaopeng delivered 6565 cars, up 617 percent year-on-year; and ideal cars delivered 7713, up 320.6 percent year-on-year.
Relevant data show that in June this year, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 14%, and the penetration rate from January to June is 10.2, which is significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8 in 2020.
Cui Dongshu said that the reason why the new energy vehicle market is still showing a high growth trend despite the shortage of chips is mainly due to the following reasons: On the one hand, the head companies are under insufficient chip supply and the traditional car double points assessment pressure is relatively high., Resulting in the dilution of the company's early accumulated scale advantage. Under such circumstances, the head car companies will further accelerate the transformation and layout of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, for new car companies that focus on the new energy vehicle market, their volume is smaller, and the chip demand is easier to be guaranteed, and the delivery volume has therefore exceeded expectations.
Shanxi Securities pointed out that in the future, the trend of slowing down the growth rate of the fuel vehicle market will be further strengthened, and it is expected that new energy vehicles will still maintain strong growth in the second half of the year.
How do you see the trend throughout the year?
The decline in car sales in June seems to have sounded the alarm in the industry: the recovery of the car market will not be in a straight line under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic.
Chen Shihua said that the current rise in raw materials, chip shortages and other factors will affect the trend of the auto market, and he must remain cautiously optimistic about the situation throughout the year.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that from the current point of view, the problem of chip shortage is still a problem of supply and demand, and other aspects have not been involved. Therefore, the impact on automobile production and sales is short-term, and the impact on sales in the first half of the year is about 10%, but the impact on annual sales is relatively limited.
"Although the current shortage of chips is a supply problem, we must face up to the fact that we have shortcomings in this area. It may take at least 2-3 years to make up for the shortcomings of automotive chips." Xu Haidong said.
In addition to the uncertainty brought by chips to automobile production and sales, the recovery of consumer confidence is also a key. Cui Dongshu believes that the scissors gap between PPI and CPI has reached a new high this year, the transmission of rising international commodity prices has not yet ended, and the squeeze on corporate profits continues to exist, especially the short-term operating pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises, which aggravates the difficulty of income recovery of low-and middle-income groups, which will bring challenges to the recovery of purchasing power in the auto market.
Although the growth rate of domestic car sales slowed down in May and June, the industry as a whole still has high expectations for the sales trend of the whole year, especially for the new energy vehicle market, which has repeatedly raised sales expectations.
According to the latest market forecast released by the China Automobile Association, car sales are expected to reach 27 million vehicles in 2021, up 6.7 percent year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 22.1 million, up 9.5 percent year-on-year; the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.9 million, down 4.5 percent year-on-year; and the sales volume of new energy vehicles was expected to reach 2.4 million, up 76 percent year-on-year.
It is worth noting that at the beginning of this year, the China Automobile Association's forecast for the annual sales of new energy vehicles was 1.8 million. As the new energy vehicle market continues to be hot, the China Automobile Association has repeatedly raised its expectations for this market segment.
Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, told the Securities Times that the growth of sales of new energy vehicles is driven by demand. With the improvement of battery reliability and vehicle safety, more and more consumers begin to recognize new energy vehicles, which is the fundamental factor driving the growth of the new energy vehicle market.
"The forecasts we give just represent the direction of the market." Shi Jianhua stressed that on the whole, the current market recovery is far better than expected, and suggested that the whole industry should not pay too much attention to the changes in automobile production and sales data, but should pay more attention to the general direction and trend of the development of the industry.
(Source: Securities Times Network)
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