|
The optimization of the industrial structure of the domestic steel industry continues after the outbreak.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), on enhancing the industry's innovation capabilities, strictly prohibiting new steel production capacity, optimizing and adjusting the industrial layout, accelerating mergers and reorganizations, orderly guiding short-process steelmaking, deepening green and low-carbon, vigorously developing intelligent manufacturing, greatly improving quality and efficiency, and improving resource guarantee capabilities, Deepen reform and opening up cooperation, maintain fair market order, and improve the level of intrinsic safety. Publicly solicit opinions from all walks of life.
"Under the efforts of iron and steel enterprises to accelerate the optimization of product structure and further reduce costs and increase efficiency, the overall optimization of the industry pattern and the ability to control raw materials are enhanced." CITIC Securities researcher Tang Chuanlin said the industry's profit pivot over the next five years has room to rise further compared to last year.
Greatly increase the domestic self-sufficiency rate
The "Opinions" clearly pointed out that by 2025, the steel industry will basically form a development pattern with reasonable industrial layout, advanced technology and equipment, outstanding quality brands, high level of intelligence, strong global competitiveness, and green, low-carbon and sustainable development.
Among them, in terms of resource security, the domestic self-sufficiency rate of iron metal should reach more than 45%, the annual domestic scrap resources should reach 0.3 billion tons, and 1-2 overseas equity iron mines with global influence and market competitiveness should be built. Overseas equity iron ore accounts for more than 20% of imported ore. According to Fubao Information, the supply of scrap steel is about 0.238 billion tons in 2020, and Tang Chuanlin is more likely to achieve the target of scrap steel resource supply according to a conservative estimate of 5% growth rate.
In this regard, my steel network information director Xu Xiangchun said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "Iron metal is mainly iron ore and scrap steel. Iron ore in the domestic resources are relatively scarce, a large number of dependence on imports, the degree of external dependence is about 80%, the highest time to reach 90%. Currently mainly imported from Australia and Brazil, the current situation is difficult to change."
In Xu Xiangchun's view, the domestic annual production of scrap steel resources to achieve a jump from the current 0.2 billion tons to 0.3 billion tons, in contrast, there will be more incremental space. "In the current situation of excessive dependence on iron ore imports, our bargaining power is in a passive position, and we are more vulnerable to fluctuations in the international political situation."
It is worth mentioning that in the second half of 2020, iron ore prices have been soaring. As a major exporter of iron ore, Australia has made huge profits. According to Australia's quarterly report on resources and energy released in December 2020, Australia's iron ore export revenue is expected to increase to US $123 billion (about 794.8 billion yuan) in 20/21. According to Australian Resources Minister Peter, as the country's largest buyer of iron ore, up to 62% of China's iron ore imports in the 2019-2020 fiscal year come from Australia.
In this case, China's inherent will to get rid of dependence is also increasing. Chinese iron ore purchases have been falling over the past few months as iron ore prices have risen. Data show that in November last year, China's iron ore imports fell by 8.1 to 98.15 million tons, the second consecutive month of month-on-month decline.
Xu Xiangchun pointed out: "The launch of this plan and iron ore prices have some relevance, but more coincidental, just this node. Iron metal domestic self-sufficiency rate of more than 45% is a long-term goal, no price boom will also be put forward. Domestic enterprises are through overseas mergers and acquisitions to absorb the stock of resources, but on the other hand are also doing new resource development, such as the Guinea iron ore project in West Africa."
According to public information, the foundation stone laying ceremony of the winning alliance Simandou project port was held in Guinea in October 2020, which also means that the development of the winning alliance Simandou project has entered a new stage. The port will provide an important material transportation channel for the infrastructure construction of the project in the early stage, and will be used as an iron ore export port in the future.
Win Alliance is a community initiated by China Hongqiao Group, Guinea UMS Group, Yantai Port Group and Singapore Weili International Group in Guinea. Win Alliance and the Guinean government signed the Simandou Block 1 and Block 2 Foundation Convention in June 2020, officially obtaining the right to develop the project. The high-grade iron ore reserves of Simandou 1 and 2 are estimated to exceed 2 billion tons, and the vein is considered to be the world's largest untapped reserve of high-quality open-pit hematite. Since the signing of the basic convention, Win Alliance Simandou has fully started mine geological exploration and other related work.
Xu Xiangchun believes that for domestic steel companies, opportunities and challenges coexist. "On the one hand, it can broaden diversified channels, increase investment cooperation and reduce dependence. On the other hand, there are greater challenges in new resources, such as poor infrastructure and long investment cycles in West African countries."
High quality development
In addition, the "Opinions" put forward the "14th Five-Year Plan" period of industry concentration CR5/CR10 reached 40%/60% of the target, in stainless steel, special steel, seamless steel pipe, cast pipe and other sub-sectors to cultivate 1-2 world-class professional leading enterprises.
Tang Chuanlin predicted: "It is forbidden to add new production capacity, optimize the industrial layout, and accelerate the merger and reorganization will be the main ways to achieve the above goals. At the same time, the current proportion of electric furnace steel in China's iron and steel industry is about 10%, and the proportion of scrap steel is about 20%, while the target set in the Opinions is to increase the proportion of electric furnace steel to 15%-20%, and the proportion of scrap steel to 30%, which is also matched with the goal of improving the supply of scrap steel in terms of resource protection and supply, consuming the increment of scrap steel with real demand."
Under the background of integration and acceleration, upgrading of production equipment, upgrading of R & D investment and optimization of product structure will become the main objectives of iron and steel enterprises.
Tang Chuanlin said: "With the efforts of steel companies to accelerate product structure optimization and further reduce costs and increase efficiency, superimposed on the overall optimization of the industry landscape and the enhancement of the ability to control raw materials, we expect the industry's profit center in the next five years to be compared to last year. There is room for further improvement."
At the same time, the "Opinions" also put forward certain requirements for green and low-carbon, that is, to promote the coupling development between industries, build a cross-resource recycling system, and strive to take the lead in achieving the peak of carbon emissions. The completion rate of ultra-low emission transformation in the industry has reached more than 80%, and all enterprises in key areas have completed ultra-low emission transformation. The total pollutant discharge has been reduced by more than 20%, the total energy consumption and intensity have been reduced by more than 5%, and the water consumption intensity has been reduced by more than 10%. The reuse rate of water has reached more than 98%.
In this regard, Xu Xiangchun analyzed: "Industrial coupling development is a systematic project. It needs to contact upstream and downstream and surrounding enterprises to recycle resources. The most important thing is to need policy support."
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
|
