|
Affected by multiple factors such as limited production and power restrictions, the prices of various raw materials in my country rose sharply in August and September. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August, the PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) rose 9.5 year-on-year and 0.7 month-on-month.%, the five fields of coal, ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and chemical fibers contributed more than 80% of the year-on-year increase. This also led to the middle and lower reaches of the enterprise shout "can not afford to hurt".
Wuxi Molesco Trading Co., Ltd. is a sales company engaged in the production and import and export of chemical coatings. Its main products are release agents, lubricants and peripheral auxiliary equipment and materials used in the die casting industry. Although the energy consumption of the company's production line is not high and there is no power limit, the price of silicone oil emulsion (a product in the industrial silicon/monomer silicon industry chain), a raw material for its production, rose sharply in September. "The price of silicone oil emulsion rose 40% in September compared with August, and silicone oil emulsion accounted for 40% of the cost of our company's terminal products." The head of the company said.
Due to rising raw material costs, the company's gross margin began to decline. The person in charge said that the company's main customers are basically major domestic auto parts manufacturers, and the market competition is very fierce, so the company does not want to increase prices for the time being, and can only digest the pressure brought by rising costs on its own.
Entering the fourth quarter, the most concerned question of these enterprises is: when will this phenomenon subside?
The experts' view is that from the analysis of several main reasons for power restriction and production restriction, the growth of domestic and foreign demand in the fourth quarter may weaken at the same time. Although the factors of double control and coal shortage will continue in the short term, the situation will also improve as governments at all levels manage in a more refined way, so the price of raw materials will fall.
Multiple factors make it difficult to reduce energy consumption.
In fact, China's energy consumption dual control has a long history.
The 2021 government work report clearly stated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by 13.5 and 18%, respectively. At the same time, the main expected target for development in 2021 is to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by about 3%.
During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, my country has taken the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP as a binding indicator to promote energy conservation and emission reduction. During this period, important progress has been made in energy conservation, the economic structure has been continuously optimized, and the level of energy efficiency has been greatly improved, but the total energy consumption has increased significantly. To this end, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to implement the "dual control" action of total energy consumption and intensity, that is, on the basis of controlling the intensity of energy consumption, resolutely control the total energy consumption, and according to the administrative regions of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. Set the total energy consumption and intensity control targets, and supervise and assess local governments at all levels.
According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year" Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction issued by the State Council, it is clearly required that by 2020, energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 15% compared with 2015, and the total energy consumption will be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal.
According to a research report released by Liu Xiaoning, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, from the actual completion, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's total energy consumption was controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal (4.98 billion tons), but the energy consumption per unit of GDP Only reduced by 13.2.
In 2021, although the target task has been locked at the beginning of the year, the national development and Reform Commission said at a regular press conference in August that the energy consumption intensity of Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Jiangsu in the first half of the year did not decrease but increased year on year. In addition, the reduction rate of energy intensity in 10 provinces did not meet the progress requirements.
"This year's energy intensity requirements have not been increased." Luo Zhiheng, vice president of the Guangdong Open Securities Research Institute, told First Financial News that energy consumption per unit of GDP is required to fall by more than 3% in 2018, about 3% in 2019 and about 3% in 2021.
According to Luo Zhiheng's analysis, the reasons for the objective increase in the difficulty of achieving the goal this year are: first, the change of industrial structure. In the first half of this year, the economic operation still showed the characteristics of strong external demand. China undertook overseas production, and exports exceeded expectations to drive the rapid development of the secondary industry, which is dominated by the industrial sector, while the secondary industry unit consumes high energy. At the same time, due to repeated epidemics and other reasons, the recovery of the tertiary industry has been slow, and in the past the way to reduce energy consumption through the development of the tertiary industry has been blocked. The tertiary sector's share of GDP in the first half of 2021 was 55.7 per cent, down from 56.8 per cent in 2020. The second is a diminishing marginal cost, which means that the cost of reducing energy consumption will increase even if faced with the same goal.
When the price rise reaction fades
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI (National Consumer Price) rose 0.8 percent in August from a year earlier, down 0.2 percentage points from July, while the PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) rose 9.5 percent year-on-year and 0.7 percent month-on-month. In August, the scissors gap between PPI and CPI reached 8.7 percentage points, continuing to hit a record high. This also means that the price transmission process is not smooth, and the middle and downstream enterprises are bearing higher cost pressure.
Wang Weiquan, secretary-general of the Energy and Environment Professional Committee of the China Energy Research Association, told China Business News that although in the short term, measures such as production and power restrictions put pressure on middle and lower-stream companies, this impact will not last for a long time.
Wang Weiquan said that from January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of national infrastructure investment was only 2.9 per cent, down significantly from the 7.8 per cent growth rate from January to June. At the same time, in the first half of the year, many countries because of the tightening of epidemic prevention and control policies, steel and other products can not be self-sufficient, so China's external demand is strong. And as the global epidemic eases, demand for energy-intensive industries and products will decline. When China's internal and external demand weakens at the same time, raw material prices will fall.
"In the process of implementing the dual control goal, on the one hand, some regions should establish standards of continuity, stability and predictability to limit the improper use of energy by enterprises; on the other hand, the situation of various regions, industries, and enterprises There are differences, and it is not appropriate to adopt a simple and crude" one size fits all "approach. Governments at all levels should take the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction and speeding up the adjustment of energy structure as the main starting point, so as to fundamentally solve the problems of energy consumption intensity and total energy consumption." Wang Weiquan said.
In September this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Plan for Improving the Dual Control System of Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Amount" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). Guo Jiaofeng, a researcher at the Institute of resources and environmental policy of the development research center of the State Council, analyzed to the first financial reporter that there are two main points in the plan: one is to encourage renewable energy consumption. The plan proposes that in areas where the incentive renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is exceeded, The consumption amount exceeding the minimum renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight will not be included in the assessment of the total energy consumption in the region. The second is to emphasize that the intensity of energy consumption should be greatly reduced. The state continues to reduce the intensity of energy consumption as a binding indicator of the five-year plan for national economic and social development, reasonably sets the total energy consumption index, and decomposes the five-year goal of dual control of energy consumption to all provinces.
"In response to the plan just proposed at the national level, various localities have not had time to issue specific rules, which has led to the confusion of fossil energy and non-fossil energy consumption. It is expected that by the end of this year, it should be calculated in accordance with the new plan. That is, to broaden the energy space of renewable energy, and at the same time speed up technological transformation, recycling and industrial structure adjustment, production capacity will also be released. Therefore, we believe that the impact of the dual-control policy on the volatility of economic performance is relatively short-term." Guo Jiao Feng said.
Another important reason leading to limited power production is the shortage of electricity supply.
On September 29, the National Development and Reform Commission said in response to a reporter's question on energy supply this winter and next spring that we are confident and capable of ensuring power supply in winter. We must adhere to the principle of "limiting power without switching off", scientifically arrange the use of electricity in an orderly manner, strictly implement the use of electricity in an orderly manner, and strictly prohibit switching off and limiting power. In some periods, we must give priority to people's livelihood, and coordinate the relationship between ensuring the use of energy for people's livelihood and the use of energy for some industrial and commercial production. To this end, we have organized various localities and coal, electric power, and natural gas supply companies to establish a list of users who can interrupt peak shaving, formulate a reduction plan, and implement "suppressing non-protection of the people" in a scientific and orderly manner when necessary. It is necessary to cover the bottom line of people's livelihood and energy use. It is also necessary to minimize the impact on economic and social development.
In response to the shortage of coal, the National Development and Reform Commission responded on the same day that since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous recovery of my country's economy and the rise in the prices of international bulk energy raw materials, my country's coal consumption has grown faster than expected, and supply and demand are tight. Coal consumption will continue to grow in the heating season this winter and next spring. By further increasing production, increasing imports, using reserve resources and social stocks, coal supply is guaranteed.
Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told China Business News that from the perspective of dual control factors, production and power restrictions may continue until the end of the year, and the completion of the target task is still arduous; from the perspective of power factors, the supply of electricity and coal The price depends on the government's control efforts. Now the Development and Reform Commission and other departments have taken various measures, and the tight supply and demand situation should soon improve.
(Source: First Financial)
|
